Is a Stable Middle Power Order Possible?

As the post-Cold War liberal international order weakens and great power rivalry intensifies, global governance is often framed as a choice between continued US leadership, a China-centered order, or fragmentation into competing blocs. This paper considers a fourth scenario: a global order anchored on Europe and a coalition of capable middle powers, with the United States and China supporting its stability without seeking hegemonic dominance.

In such an alternative framework, Europe would contribute institutional experience, economic weight, and multilateral capacity, while middle powers from the Global South would bring regional influence, demographic heft, and greater legitimacy in shaping global priorities. Together, they could form flexible, issue-based coalitions to address global challenges—from conflict mediation and economic cooperation to debt relief, climate transition, and technology access—particularly where great power consensus proves difficult to achieve.

The viability of this scenario would require significant commitment. Europe would need greater strategic coherence and a more equitable approach to partnerships with the Global South, while middle powers would have to assume stronger roles in regional security, economic governance, and global agenda setting. At the same time, both the United States and China may have the incentive to tolerate such an arrangement if it helps sustain global stability without requiring direct great power leadership.

While far from guaranteed, a global order anchored in a Europe-middle power arrangement offers a potentially stabilizing alternative to bipolar confrontation or geopolitical fragmentation—and deserves greater attention as the international system enters a new multipolar era.